Tendencies in current climate change and atmospheric circulation variability in the Arctic region of West Siberia

Elena V. Kharyutkina, Sergey V. Loginov

10.5817/CPR2017-2-30

The main goal of this study is to carry out the investigation of the climatic parameters variability and the role of global atmospheric circulation in their trends over the Arctic region of West Siberia (60-70°N, 60-90°E) using reanalysis data.  The characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of meteorological parameters (surface air temperature and soil temperature, atmospheric pressure, snow depth and surface albedo) were calculated using ERA-Interim reanalysis data over the period of 1979−2015. It was established that in the beginning of XXI century, there is an air and soil temperature decrease in winter and autumn and its statistically significant increase in spring and summer. The tendency to permafrost area degradation is observed for the Arctic region. The maximal changes are observed in low-temperature permafrost soils than in soils with higher temperature. This trend is accompanied by the decrease in snow cover depth and surface albedo. Global circulation indices variability, its relationships with meteorological parameters in West Siberia and with sea ice cover extent in the Arctic Seas indicate that atmospheric blocking processes, which are responsible for anticyclonic type of weather, were developed in the region during last decades.

References:

Anisimov, O. A., Shiklomanov, N. I. and Nelson, F. E. (1997): Global warming and active layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models. Global and Planetary Change, 34: 61-77.

Anisimov, O. (2007): Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission. Environmental Research Letters, N2, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/ 045016.

Arzhanov, M. M., Eliseev, A. V., Demchenko, P. F. and Mokhov, I. I. (2007): Modeling of changes in temperature and hydrological regimes of subsurface permafrost, using the climate data (reanalysis). Kriosfera Zemli, VXI. N4: 65-69. (In Russian).

Barnston, A. G., Livezey, R. E. (1987): Classification, Seasonality, and Persistence of Low Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns. Monthly Weather Review, 6: 1083-1126.

Brown, J., Ferrians, O. J., Heginbottom, J. A. and Melnikov, E. S. (1997): Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground Ice Conditions. CircumPacific Map Series.

Gavrilova, M.K. (1993): Climate and permafrost. Permafrost and Periglacial processes, 4: 99-111.

Ippolitov, I. I., Loginov, S. V., Kharyutkina, E. V. and Moraru, E. I. (2014): Climate variability over the Asian territory of Russia in 1975–2012. Geography and Natural Resource, 4: 13-22.

Kharyutkina, E. V., Loginov, S. V. and Ippolitov, I. I. (2016a): Influence of radiation and circulation factors on climate change in Western Siberia at the end of the 20^th century and beginning of the 21st century. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 56(6): 579-586.

Kharyutkina, E. V., Loginov, S. V. and Martynova,Y. V. (2016b): Variability of atmospheric circulation under the climate change in West Siberia in the late 20^th - early 21^st centuries. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 41: 435-438.

Overland, J., Wang, M. and Salo, S. (2008): The recent Arctic warm period. Tellus A, 60: 589-597.

Outten, S. D., Esau, I. (2012): A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia. Climatic Change, 110(3-4): 1069-1075, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0334-z.

Pavlov, A. V., Anan’eva, G. V., Drozdov, D. S., Moskalenko, N. G., Dubrovin, V. A., Kakunov, N. B., Minajlov, G. P., Skachkov, B. and Skrjabin, P. N. (2002): Monitoring of seasonally thawed layer and the temperature of frozen soil in the Russian North. Kriosfera Zemli, 4: 30-39. (In Russian).

Pavlov, A. V. (2008): Trends of contemporary changes of soil temperature in the northern Russia. Kriosfera Zemli. V.XII, 3: 22-27. (In Russian).

Petoukhov, V., Semenov, A. (2010): A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: D21111, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013568.

Popova, V. V. (2006): Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20^th  century. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 42: 138-147.

Sherstyukov, A. B. (2008). Correlation of soil temperature with air temperature and snow cover depth in Russia. Kriosfera Zemli, V.XII, N1. (In Russian).

Sherstyukov, A. B. (2009): Climate change and its impacts in the permafrost zone of Russia. Obninsk, RIHMI-WDC. 2009: 127 p.

Shur, Y. M., Hinkel, K. M. and Nelson, F. E. (2005): The transient layer: implications for geocryology and climate change science. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 16 (N1): 5-17.

Streletskiy, D. A., Shiklomanov, N. I. and Grebenets, V. I. (2012): Changes of foundation bearing capacity due to climate warming in northwest Siberia. Kriosfera Zemli, V.XVI. N1: 22-32. (In Russian).

Von Storch, H., Zwiers F.W. (2003): Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-45071-3, 484 p.

Zhang, T., Heginbottom, J. A., Barry, R. G. and Brown, J. (2000): Further statistics of the distribution of permafrost and ground ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Polar Geography, 2: 126-131.

Other sources

[1] IPCC (2013): Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York. NY. USA. 1535 p. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.

[2] Assessment report on climate change and its consequences in the Russian Federation (2014), V.2: Climate Change, Rosgidromet, Moscow (In Russian).

[3] Report on climate features over the territory of Russian Federation for 2014 (2015). Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet), Moscow, 107 p.

Web sources

[WP 1]  http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim

[WP 2]  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data

[WP 3]  http://arctic-roos.org/observations/sea-ice-variability-in-regions

[WP 4]  ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/gsod/

[WP 5]  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov