Posloupnost nejistoty v klimatických modelech a její šíření do transportních modelů
The analysis of uncertainties in climate model outputs is a very important research topic, especially with regard to the fact, that the model outputs are being used as inputs for studies of impacts of possible future climate changes. The results of such analysis serve as the basis for important (and sometimes quite demanding) adaptation and mitigation strategies.
One of the most frequently used ways of uncertainty assessment is the analysis of multi-model ensemble (MME) spread. This approach aims at estimating the uncertainty stemming from choices in model structure, parameterization schemes and in case of regional climate models (RCMs) also boundary conditions. The estimate of the uncertainties in climate model outputs must accompany any future climate change scenario. Moreover, its quantification is crucial for establishing uncertainty propagation to climate impact models such as the chemistry transport models (CTM). Indeed, CTM performance strongly relies on the input meteorological driving data, therefore a significant portion of CTM uncertainty comes from the uncertainty of the driving climate model.
Therefore, in this project, we intend to find a way to bridge the gap between climate model uncertainty and CTM uncertainty.